Caspian Weekly Digest - October 20, 2026

Weekly Digest

Trump Hits Pause on Russia Tariffs

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The Bottom Line

Last week we flagged the October 18 deadline for Russia tariffs under the Graham law. The President's October 16 executive order set those tariffs at 500% on Russian goods and 100% on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, then waived all of them in the same order. Since then, Commerce has defined U.S. content for USMCA machinery under Section 232, and the Federal Maritime Commission has proposed blocking five categories of Spanish goods.

Russia

Russia Tariffs Set and Waived in One Order

The President signed the Russia tariffs on October 16 and waived them in the same order. We flagged the October 18 deadline last week. There's nothing to change on your entries.

The order puts Russian goods at 500%. The five biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas get 100% if they keep buying after October 18, and so do the five countries doing the most to help Russia dodge oil sanctions. All of that would come in addition to Section 232, Section 301 and antidumping duties.

There's no end date on the waiver. USTR is supposed to track who's buying Russian oil and gas and tell the President.

Why It Matters

The rates are already in the order, so lifting the waiver is all it would take.

Source: White House

Section 232

Commerce Defines U.S. Content for USMCA Machinery

Back in June the President set the Section 232 rate on USMCA mobile equipment from Canada and Mexico so the 25% only applies to the non-U.S. content, with a 15% floor. Nobody had said what U.S. content meant. Commerce's guidance on October 14 finally does. It counts parts made or substantially transformed in the U.S., plus any U.S. melted and poured steel or U.S. smelted and cast aluminum or copper you haven't counted in a part.

The rule's easy enough to read. Proving it is the tough part, because you're relying on suppliers to tell you where their steel was poured, and a lot of them won't know off the top of their head.

Why It Matters

CBP can come after you for a U.S. content claim you can't back up, so we'd get the supplier paperwork in hand before you file at the lower rate.

Sources: Federal Register, White House

Spain

FMC Proposes Blocking Five Spanish Import Categories

The Federal Maritime Commission proposed on October 15 to limit imports from Spain of oils and fats including olive oil, sugar and candy, perfume and cosmetics, stone articles, and ceramics including tile. It also wants a $200,000 fee every time a Spanish-flagged ship enters a U.S. port.

It's the FMC's answer to Spain turning away U.S.-flagged ships. It works through vessel clearance: under the proposal, a ship of any flag that unloads covered Spanish goods could be refused clearance until the goods go back on board.

The FMC counts $1.15 billion of Spanish oils and fats imported in 2025, $836.9 million of it olive oil. Comments are due December 14. The FMC says it may still go narrower.

Why It Matters

Nothing is restricted yet. If the rule is finalized as proposed, a ship carrying covered Spanish goods could be denied entry or detained, so contracts for Spanish product need a plan for that.

Source: Federal Register

Canadian softwood lumber. Commerce wrapped up its 2024 reviews on Canadian softwood lumber. On the subsidy side West Fraser is at 15.31%, Resolute at 12.42% and the 215 companies not reviewed on their own at 14.11%. Those 2024 entries liquidate at the final rates, so you'll either get money back or get a bill. (Federal Register: antidumping, countervailing)

Truck bed covers. Truck bed covers from China got final subsidy rates of 11.60% and 77.17% for the two companies Commerce looked at. (Federal Register)

Dissolving pulp. Commerce says high-purity dissolving pulp from Brazil and Norway is being sold below fair value. Brazil's is subsidized too. (Federal Register: Brazil, Norway)

What We're Watching

Russia review. Secretary Rubio told reporters on Saturday the President will take up to 60 days to look at what the tariffs would do to the U.S. and global economy. The President said he hasn't made his final call yet.

Spain's response. Madrid says any reply to the FMC will come through the EU, which runs trade policy for Spain. The FMC has offered Spain a hearing. (FMC)

Dates That Matter

• Oct 22: Proposed schedule due in the IEEPA refund class action, including the government's answer date
• Dec 14: Comments due on the FMC's proposed limits on Spanish imports

What To Do Now

Ask Your Suppliers Where the Steel Came From
You'll need to know which parts were made in the U.S. and where the steel was melted and poured before you claim the lower USMCA rate on machinery.

Comment If Spanish Goods Matter to You
Bringing in olive oil, candy, perfume, tile or stone from Spain? The FMC wants comments by December 14.

Check Your 2024 Lumber Deposits
Line them up against the final rates and you'll know if you're getting money back or owing more.

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